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Fortnight Market Watch Report Oct 4- Oct 17

Writer: Jenee Edwards
Jenee Edwards
Oct 18
3 min read

Oil Hit $110. Here Is How We Will Know If the Fertiliser Squeeze Reaches St. Vincent


The farmers who come through a squeeze best are usually the ones who saw it early and checked their own numbers. This week gives us something worth checking. Oil reached its highest price since May, a UN farm agency says the pressure is now showing up in harvests abroad, and there is one simple test that will tell us whether it has reached our shelves.


What Happened



  • Oil. Brent crude settled at $109.86 a barrel on Friday, October 16, up 4.9% on the week and its highest close since May.

  • Harvests. Alvaro Lario, President of IFAD, the UN’s fund for farming in poorer countries, said the effects of the Hormuz disruption “are now starting to be seen” in harvests. Stocks of fertiliser and fuel cushioned the first months. Since then, farmers in import-dependent countries have planted more cautiously and used less fertiliser.

  • Caribbean fertiliser. Nutrien announced on October 5 that its nitrogen plant at Point Lisas in Trinidad will stay shut indefinitely. It has been idle since October 2025.

  • Freight and food. Container freight rose 3% to US$4,485 for a 40-foot container. World raw sugar rose to 20.40 US cents a pound. Wheat slipped to US$6.605 a bushel.


Why it Matters to SVG and the Caribbean


The IFAD warning describes the second stage of a price shock. First the price goes up. Then farmers buy less. Then, a season later, there is less to harvest.


We import our fertiliser too.


I don’t know whether any fertiliser on a shelf in St. Vincent came from the Trinidad plant, and I won’t say it did until a supplier tells me.


Here is what I do know. On October 5, the Agri Input Warehouse had urea at EC$52.50 for a 25 kg bag, after the government’s 30% discount, with NPK 16-8-24 at EC$46.00 and 12-12-17 at EC$52.50, all in stock. On October 11, diesel was posted at EC$17.30 a gallon in Arnos Vale.


In my view, that stock was probably bought before shipping got harder. Which means the shelf price today tells us less than the next shipment will.


What Farmers May Feel First



  • The next fertiliser shipment. If it costs more, if the quote is good for fewer days, or if it arrives later, that is the first sign the pressure has reached us.

  • Fuel and transport, with world oil at its highest since May. We will only know whether local fuel is moving by checking the same pump a few weeks apart.

  • Not the shelf price of flour or sugar, yet. The world crop is still only about a fifth of what you pay for a pound here, so this week’s moves in sugar and wheat should not change it soon.


What Vincy Agriboost is Doing


  • Tracking oil, freight, fertiliser and food prices every week, with each number dated and sourced.

  • Keeping our October prices as the baseline, so the next check is a fair comparison: same shop, same product.

  • Rechecking fertiliser price, stock and the next shipment date with our supplier this week.


How You Can Help


If you farm and will need fertiliser for your next planting, price it now and ask when the next shipment is due.


When you buy, note the price, the shop, the date and whether they had everything you wanted, and send it to us. One farmer’s note is a story. Many of them together are the first real picture of what inputs cost in St. Vincent.


Global numbers explain pressure. Only a local quote tells you the cost.


Sources


 
 
 

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