Weekly Market Watch Report Nov 27-Oct 3

Jenee Edwards

Oct 5

9 min read

Global Trends, Local Impact. A Stronger Vincy Farming Community

Weekly Update

Bread and Sugar Feel It Next, While Oil Holds Steady

Dasheen growers have a real choice to weigh. The export deal is set to pay anywhere from EC$40 to EC$100 a sack, while traffickers are paying EC$60. Oil also stopped climbing, and the world's richest countries agreed to release diesel from their emergency reserves. The new pressure is on food. Grain and sugar prices rose in September, and those are the things SVG buys from abroad and puts on the table every day.

Main signal this week

World food prices rose for September, led by cereals (up 5.1%) and sugar (up 6.1%). Oil held at about $102 a barrel after the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and other reserves.

Risk level: Watch for imported food. High for fuel, which is still about 14% above late August.

What happened this week

Food. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5% from August. Cereals rose 5.1%, sugar 6.1% and vegetable oils 0.9%. Meat fell 1.1% and dairy was flat. Wheat reached its highest level since August 2023, and maize hit a three-year high. (FAO, released Oct 2
Oil. Brent settled at $102.25 a barrel on Friday, October 2. On September 25 it settled at $104.32, and on August 28 it was $89.31. (Reuters, via EnergyNow)
Diesel. On October 2 the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and other emergency stocks over four months through the International Energy Agency, with a large share of the diesel coming in the first 20 days. Russia has officially extended its ban on diesel exports by producers to October 31, and China has suspended fuel exports for October. (The National, Oct 2; Reuters via EnergyNow, Oct 2; Moscow Times, citing the Russian government's own release, Sept 30)
Hormuz. The US naval blockade continues and the Strait is still largely shut to normal traffic. At least four vessels were hit by projectiles near the Strait on October 2, and a tanker was damaged on October 3. (CBS News live updates, Oct 2–3)
Saudi supply. The East-West pipeline, which lets Saudi oil avoid Hormuz, restarted on September 22. Three of its eleven pumping stations were damaged, and the other eight are moving crude at a reduced rate, with an interim target of about 4 million barrels a day against a normal 7 million. Exports through it resumed the following week. Full repair could take about six weeks. (Maritime Executive, Sept 22; ThePrint; Al Arabiya citing Bloomberg, Sept 28)
Fertilizer (US Gulf, week of Sept 28).Urea was about US$450–455 per short ton, which is lower. DAP held at US$800–805 and potash edged up to US$345–360. The outlook for October and November is still firm. (Advanced Turf Solutions, one source only.)
Freight. Drewry's World Container Index slipped 1% to US$4,434 per 40-ft container on October 1. The Shanghai–New York rate rose 1%, to US$10,428. (Drewry via DCN)
Here at home: VAB local checks (Oct 5).Diesel was EC$17.53 a gallon and gasoline EC$18.31, the same as the official maximum prices set on June 29, so pump prices have not changed since June. Agri Input Warehouse quoted urea at EC$52.50, NPK 16-8-24 at EC$46.00 and NPK 12-12-17 at EC$52.50, each for a 25 kg bag after the 30% government discount, all in stock. At Pit Stop Grocery in North Union, flour was EC$2.50, brown sugar EC$2.75 and white sugar EC$3.00 (per lb). (VAB phone checks, Oct 5)
Dasheen. The Minister of Agriculture told the national press that the dasheen floor price would rise from around EC$40 to a minimum of EC$100 a sack, and credited the export agreements Quantome enabled. Jen reports that the deal is actually set up so the price moves between EC$40 and EC$100 a sack. The Ministry is showing only the EC$100, which is the top of the range. Traffickers are paying EC$60 a sack. A sack holds about 50 lb, so the deal works out to about EC$0.80 to EC$2.00 a pound, against EC$1.20 from traffickers. At the top of the range the deal pays more. At the bottom it pays less than traffickers. (Jen, Oct 5; OneNews St Vincent, June 19; Searchlight, Sept 18.)
Electricity. An October 3 opinion piece in iWitness News puts VINLEC's fuel surcharge at EC$0.79 per kWh for September. That is the fourth month in a row above the 2022 record. (Needs checking: the figure comes from an opinion piece.)
Region. Caribbean Week of Agriculture ran from September 27 to October 2 in Trelawny, Jamaica, with a focus on food systems and roots and tubers.
Weather. On Sunday morning the National Hurricane Center was watching only a low in the southwestern Gulf, with a 30% chance of development in 7 days. Nothing is heading for the Windward Islands.

Market Watch

Category	What changed	What it may mean for SVG
Food prices	FAO index +1.5% in Sept; cereals +5.1%, sugar +6.1%	Possible pressure on flour, rice, bread and sugar over the next couple of months.
Fertilizer	US Gulf urea lower (~$450–455/st); DAP flat; potash up slightly	A small easing at the source. It's too early to expect it at the shop.
Fuel / freight	Brent $102.25, down from $104.32; G7 diesel release; container freight −1%	Fuel stays expensive, though the steep climb has paused. Container rates are not the problem.
Seeds / supplies	No new signal this week	—
Weather / climate	No tropical threat to the Windwards in the 7-day outlook	A good window to clear drains and mulch. Hurricane season runs to Nov 30.
Local market notes	Diesel EC$17.53/gal, unchanged since June 29. Urea EC$52.50 and NPK EC$46–52.50 per 25 kg bag. Flour EC$2.50/lb, sugar EC$2.75–3.00/lb. Dasheen EC$40–100/sack of ~50 lb (export deal) vs EC$60 (traffickers).	Pump prices haven't moved, and these prices are our baseline for spotting any rise. The deal beats the trafficker price only when it pays above EC$60. The Ministry's EC$100 figure is the best case.

Why it matters to SVG and the Caribbean

For weeks the story has been oil. This week it widened to food. Wheat and maize feed our bread, our livestock and our shop shelves, and sugar went up again. FAO prices usually take a few months to reach a Caribbean shop, and some of the rise can fade before it arrives. Still, the direction for September is clear.

Oil is a little calmer, but the reason matters. The relief comes from governments releasing emergency reserves, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and ships near it are still being hit. In our view, the safer plan for the next month is to assume fuel and electricity stay costly and to watch imported staples more closely.

For the first time we have local prices to measure against. Urea at EC$52.50 for 25 kg works out to about US$780 a tonne, roughly one and a half times the US Gulf price, and that's after the 30% government discount. Without the discount, the same bag would be about EC$75. Shipping, handling and the shop's margin make up the gap, and the discount is doing a lot of work. If it ends, farmers will feel it straight away. Next month, these same calls will show whether the September rise in grain and sugar has reached Kingstown.

Flour and sugar: shop price against world price

Item	Pit Stop Grocery, North Union (Oct 5)	World price in EC$ (Oct 2)	World share of shop price
Flour	EC$2.50/lb	About EC$0.42 of wheat in 1 lb of flour (Chicago wheat US$6.83 a bushel)	About 17%
Brown sugar	EC$2.75/lb	Raw sugar EC$0.52/lb (19.26 US cents)	About 19%
White sugar	EC$3.00/lb	White sugar EC$0.66/lb (24.42 US cents)	About 22%

(Pit Stop prices: VAB check, Oct 5. World prices: International Sugar Organization daily prices, Oct 2; Chicago December wheat close, Oct 2, via Brownfield. Converted at EC$2.70 to US$1, with a 60 lb bushel and about 74% flour from milled wheat.)

The crop itself is only about a fifth of what we pay at the shop. The rest is shipping, milling or refining, duty, VAT and the margins of the importer and the shop. In our view, that means September's world rise should show up as cents, not dollars. Sugar's 6% rise works out to about 3 to 4 cents a pound, and grain's 5% rise to about 2 cents on a pound of flour. If shop prices jump by much more than that, the cause is more likely freight, fuel or margins than the world crop. Chicago wheat is a benchmark only. Much of our flour is milled here from imported wheat, and the mill's own costs aren't public.

What farmers may feel first

Feed costs for poultry and pigs, since maize is at a three-year high. Imported feed may follow.
Flour and sugar at the shop. Today that's EC$2.50 a pound for flour and EC$2.75–3.00 for sugar.
Fuel and electricity bills, which stay high.
Fertilizer. The source price eased slightly, but don't expect your supplier's price to drop yet. Urea is EC$52.50 for a 25 kg bag with the government discount.

The practical takeaway: if you keep animals, ask your feed supplier this week whether the next shipment is priced higher. If you grow dasheen, ask what the export deal is paying this week before you sell. It can be anywhere from EC$40 to EC$100 a sack, and traffickers are paying EC$60.

This week's farmer action

If you raise chickens or pigs, write down what you paid for your last bag of feed and ask your supplier what the next bag will cost.Two numbers a month apart will tell you more than any global index.

Practice tip: stretch bought feed with what you already grow. Cassava, breadfruit, banana peels, kitchen greens and moringa can replace part of the ration for many small flocks and pens. Change slowly and watch your animals' weight and laying.

What Vincy AgriBoost is doing

Tracking oil, freight, fertilizer and food prices every week so farmers are not guessing when prices move.

Launched the VAB WhatsApp channel, so members get these updates where they already are.

Launched a VAB company page on LinkedIn for buyers, the Ministry and farmer friends.

Started a local price log this week, with fuel, fertilizer, flour and sugar checked on October 5.

How you can help

Send us one price, and join the VAB WhatsApp channel.We now have fuel, fertilizer, flour and sugar on file. We still need your fare to market and what you paid for a bag of animal feed. One price from your corner of the island helps everyone see whether this pressure has reached home.

Sources used this week

Source	Claim / data used	Status
FAO (Oct 2), via PotatoPro and IndexBox	Sept FFPI 136.0, +1.5%; cereals 122.8 (+5.1%); sugar 114.0 (+6.1%); oils 198.6 (+0.9%); meat 127.9 (−1.1%); dairy 119.1 (−0.1%)	Approved. The FAO page itself was down when checked, so two reports of the release were used.
Reuters via EnergyNow, Oct 2	Brent $102.25 settle	Approved
The National, Oct 2; Reuters via EnergyNow	G7/IEA release of 100M barrels of diesel and reserves over 4 months	Approved (two sources)
Moscow Times, Sept 30 (citing the government release)	Russia's diesel export ban for producers extended to Oct 31	Approved. Last week this was only reported; it is now official.
Reuters via EnergyNow, Oct 2	China suspended fuel exports for October	Needs checking (one source)
CBS News live updates, Oct 2–3	Vessels hit near Hormuz; blockade continues	Approved for "the blockade continues" (with last week's reports). The vessel strikes come from one source.
ThePrint; Al Arabiya/Bloomberg, Sept 28	East-West pipeline restarted Sept 22 at ~40%; exports resumed	Approved (two sources). This resolves last week's open item.
Advanced Turf Solutions, Sept 28	US Gulf urea $450–455/st, DAP $800–805, potash $345–360	Needs checking: one source, and it lists the prior week's urea as $458–478, which doesn't match its own Sept 21 sheet ($505).
Drewry WCI via DCN, Oct 1	WCI $4,434/40ft, −1%	Approved
Searchlight, Sept 18; Quantome's own case study page	The company is Quantome Incorporated (CEO Jacques Nack), which runs the digital marketplace behind the export deal	Approved. iWitness and OneNews wrote "Quantum Inc.", a misspelling of the same company, since the CEO is the same. Corrects last Sunday's version.
iWitness News opinion piece, Oct 3	VINLEC surcharge EC$0.79/kWh for Sept	Needs checking (opinion piece; confirm on a VINLEC bill)
St Vincent Times, June 28 2026	Pump diesel EC$17.53/gal from June 29	Approved. Jen's Oct 5 check shows the same price.
VAB local checks (Jen), Oct 5	Diesel, gasoline, urea, NPK, flour, sugar prices	Approved. Fertilizer prices are after the 30% discount. Flour and sugar are from Pit Stop Grocery, North Union.
Jen, Oct 5; OneNews St Vincent, June 19	Minister announced a EC$100/sack minimum (Quantome-enabled deals); the deal price is set to range EC$40–100/sack; traffickers EC$60/sack	Approved that EC$100 was announced (two sources). The EC$40–100 range and the trafficker price are Jen's local reports. A sack is about 50 lb.
Maritime Executive, Sept 22	Pipeline: 8 of 11 pumping stations working, interim target ~4M b/d	Approved (adds to ThePrint and Al Arabiya)
JIS (Jamaica), Sept 21	Caribbean Week of Agriculture, Sept 27–Oct 2	Approved
NOAA NHC outlook, Oct 4, 2 AM EDT	No threat to the Windwards; SW Gulf low at 30% over 7 days	Approved
International Sugar Organization, Oct 2	ISA raw sugar 19.26 US¢/lb; white sugar index US$538.45/t (24.42¢/lb)	Approved (official index)
Brownfield closing futures, Oct 2	Chicago Dec wheat US$6.83/bu	Approved. A benchmark only, not SVG's import cost.